10 resorts · 40 winters · 2026–27 outlook
Yes, clearly. El Niño winters have brought New Mexico and Arizona's resorts 23% more snow than a typical winter, and 23% more snow in the strongest El Niño winters.
This is El Niño's sweet spot. A stronger, more southerly storm track pays off here more than anywhere else in North America, and it shows up winter after winter, not just in a few giant years. La Niña is the flip side: it's usually lean here.
Of 10 resorts, 10 get more snow in most El Niño winters.
+33% snow in El Niño winters, +33% in strong ones. More snow.
+33% snow in El Niño winters, +31% in strong ones. More snow.
+30% snow in El Niño winters, +59% in strong ones. More snow.
Snowfall in El Niño winters compared with each resort's 40-winter average (mid-mountain, Nov–Apr). The percentage is the average; the color says whether you can count on it.
| # | Resort | El Niñosnow vs. avg | La Niñasnow vs. avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sandia PeakNM | +33% | −26% |
| 2 | Ski ApacheNM | +33% | −27% |
| 3 | Mt LemmonAZ | +30% | −25% |
| 4 | Pajarito MountainNM | +28% | −23% |
| 5 | Ski Santa FeNM | +23% | −22% |
| 6 | Arizona SnowbowlAZ | +19% | −17% |
| 7 | SipapuNM | +18% | −19% |
| 8 | Angel FireNM | +16% | −18% |
| 9 | TaosNM | +14% | −15% |
| 10 | Red RiverNM | +13% | −14% |
2026–27 is shaping up as a strong El Niño. Here's how each New Mexico & Arizona resort did in the 4 strongest El Niño winters since 1986 (peak index +1.5°C or more), compared with its own average. A handful of winters, so read it as history, not a forecast.
| Resort | 1991–92 | 1997–98 | 2015–16 | 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandia Peak | +70% | +53% | −18% | +26% |
| Ski Apache | +76% | +55% | −5% | −2% |
| Mt Lemmon | +106% | +99% | −22% | +56% |
| Pajarito Mountain | +46% | +18% | −7% | +29% |
| Ski Santa Fe | +36% | +15% | +3% | +13% |
| Arizona Snowbowl | +30% | +31% | −20% | +20% |
| Sipapu | +30% | +16% | +18% | +11% |
| Angel Fire | +27% | +10% | +12% | +4% |
| Taos | +22% | +3% | +13% | +4% |
| Red River | +18% | +7% | +8% | +7% |
| New Mexico & Arizona average | +46% | +31% | −2% | +17% |
Every North American resort is on the El Niño map and full ranking, with how we measured it: 40 winters of ERA5-Land weather at each resort's mid-mountain elevation, tagged by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index and checked against 89 SNOTEL snow stations.