18 resorts · 40 winters · 2026–27 outlook
No. El Niño winters here usually bring less snow. El Niño winters have brought the Midwest's resorts 11% less snow than a typical winter, and 8% less snow in the strongest El Niño winters.
The Upper Midwest usually runs milder with less snow in El Niño winters, as storms track farther south.
Of 18 resorts, 2 show no clear effect and 16 get less.
−6% snow in El Niño winters, −3% in strong ones. Little effect.
−7% snow in El Niño winters, −8% in strong ones. Less snow.
−7% snow in El Niño winters, −8% in strong ones. Less snow.
Chasing El Niño snow? Head south: New Mexico & Arizona (+23% on average).
Snowfall in El Niño winters compared with each resort's 40-winter average (mid-mountain, Nov–Apr). The percentage is the average; the color says whether you can count on it.
| # | Resort | El Niñosnow vs. avg | La Niñasnow vs. avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devils HeadWI | −6% | +4% |
| 2 | Terry PeakSD | −7% | +8% |
| 3 | Ski Mystic Deer MountainSD | −7% | +8% |
| 4 | Pine MountainMI | −9% | +0% |
| 5 | Caberfae PeaksMI | −10% | +1% |
| 6 | Crystal Mountain MiMI | −10% | +0% |
| 7 | Mount BohemiaMI | −11% | +3% |
| 8 | Nubs NobMI | −11% | −0% |
| 9 | Shanty CreekMI | −11% | −0% |
| 10 | Boyne HighlandsMI | −11% | −0% |
| 11 | Boyne MountainMI | −11% | −0% |
| 12 | Lutsen MountainsMN | −12% | +8% |
| 13 | IndianheadMI | −12% | +5% |
| 14 | Whitecap MountainsWI | −12% | +5% |
| 15 | Granite PeakWI | −13% | +4% |
| 16 | Big PowderhornMI | −13% | +5% |
| 17 | Giants RidgeMN | −13% | +9% |
| 18 | Afton AlpsMN | −15% | +8% |
2026–27 is shaping up as a strong El Niño. Here's how each Midwest resort did in the 4 strongest El Niño winters since 1986 (peak index +1.5°C or more), compared with its own average. A handful of winters, so read it as history, not a forecast.
| Resort | 1991–92 | 1997–98 | 2015–16 | 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devils Head | −1% | −2% | +5% | −14% |
| Terry Peak | −5% | −1% | +7% | −35% |
| Ski Mystic Deer Mountain | −5% | −1% | +7% | −35% |
| Pine Mountain | +14% | −6% | −7% | −34% |
| Caberfae Peaks | +4% | −7% | +12% | −29% |
| Crystal Mountain Mi | −0% | −4% | +10% | −32% |
| Mount Bohemia | −2% | −22% | +9% | −38% |
| Nubs Nob | +2% | −16% | +4% | −28% |
| Shanty Creek | +1% | −12% | +4% | −29% |
| Boyne Highlands | +2% | −16% | +4% | −28% |
| Boyne Mountain | −1% | −14% | +3% | −27% |
| Lutsen Mountains | +24% | −21% | +19% | −36% |
| Indianhead | +1% | −31% | +16% | −32% |
| Whitecap Mountains | +7% | −29% | +15% | −32% |
| Granite Peak | +14% | −16% | −6% | −35% |
| Big Powderhorn | +2% | −31% | +10% | −37% |
| Giants Ridge | +27% | −18% | +8% | −31% |
| Afton Alps | +47% | −25% | −16% | −41% |
| Midwest average | +7% | −15% | +6% | −32% |
Every North American resort is on the El Niño map and full ranking, with how we measured it: 40 winters of ERA5-Land weather at each resort's mid-mountain elevation, tagged by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index and checked against 89 SNOTEL snow stations.