24 resorts · 40 winters · 2026–27 outlook
Not on average: El Niño winters here have been about normal, good and bad mixed. El Niño winters have brought California and Lake Tahoe's resorts 3% more snow than a typical winter, and 12% more snow in the strongest El Niño winters.
Southern California is El Niño's boom-or-bust country: a stronger, more southerly storm track can bury Big Bear and the San Gabriels, or miss them. The Sierra Nevada (Tahoe, Mammoth) sits near the hinge of that storm track, so its El Niño winters have ranged from huge to poor with little difference on average.
Of 24 resorts, 5 get more on average, but boom or bust and 19 show no clear effect.
+17% snow in El Niño winters, +43% in strong ones. Boom or bust.
+16% snow in El Niño winters, +40% in strong ones. Boom or bust.
+16% snow in El Niño winters, +44% in strong ones. Boom or bust.
Snowfall in El Niño winters compared with each resort's 40-winter average (mid-mountain, Nov–Apr). The percentage is the average; the color says whether you can count on it.
| # | Resort | El Niñosnow vs. avg | La Niñasnow vs. avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bear MountainCA | +17% | −9% |
| 2 | Mountain HighCA | +16% | −4% |
| 3 | Mt BaldyCA | +16% | −6% |
| 4 | Snow SummitCA | +16% | −7% |
| 5 | Snow ValleyCA | +14% | −4% |
| 6 | Mt ShastaCA | +4% | +4% |
| 7 | Bear ValleyCA | +1% | +5% |
| 8 | Soda SpringsCA | +1% | +7% |
| 9 | Sierra-At-TahoeCA | +0% | +6% |
| 10 | Dodge RidgeCA | −0% | +6% |
| 11 | HomewoodCA | −0% | +7% |
| 12 | China PeakCA | −0% | +5% |
| 13 | BorealCA | −1% | +7% |
| 14 | Donner Ski RanchCA | −1% | +7% |
| 15 | Sugar BowlCA | −1% | +7% |
| 16 | KirkwoodCA | −1% | +5% |
| 17 | NorthstarCA | −1% | +7% |
| 18 | Diamond PeakNV | −2% | +7% |
| 19 | Palisades TahoeCA | −2% | +7% |
| 20 | Alpine MeadowsCA | −2% | +7% |
| 21 | HeavenlyCA | −3% | +7% |
| 22 | Mt RoseNV | −3% | +7% |
| 23 | MammothCA | −4% | +6% |
| 24 | June MountainCA | −4% | +6% |
2026–27 is shaping up as a strong El Niño. Here's how each California & Tahoe resort did in the 4 strongest El Niño winters since 1986 (peak index +1.5°C or more), compared with its own average. A handful of winters, so read it as history, not a forecast.
| Resort | 1991–92 | 1997–98 | 2015–16 | 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Mountain | +64% | +91% | −18% | +35% |
| Mountain High | +65% | +100% | −34% | +31% |
| Mt Baldy | +62% | +102% | −31% | +44% |
| Snow Summit | +57% | +90% | −18% | +27% |
| Snow Valley | +49% | +97% | −18% | +24% |
| Mt Shasta | −30% | +63% | +12% | +20% |
| Bear Valley | −36% | +40% | +15% | +4% |
| Soda Springs | −34% | +43% | +13% | +8% |
| Sierra-At-Tahoe | −40% | +35% | +16% | +10% |
| Dodge Ridge | −36% | +40% | +12% | +10% |
| Homewood | −38% | +36% | +15% | +9% |
| China Peak | −35% | +51% | −2% | +15% |
| Boreal | −39% | +39% | +14% | +7% |
| Donner Ski Ranch | −39% | +39% | +14% | +7% |
| Sugar Bowl | −40% | +38% | +15% | +6% |
| Kirkwood | −40% | +31% | +18% | +5% |
| Northstar | −43% | +38% | +16% | +2% |
| Diamond Peak | −48% | +39% | +18% | −5% |
| Palisades Tahoe | −42% | +34% | +17% | +5% |
| Alpine Meadows | −42% | +33% | +17% | +5% |
| Heavenly | −48% | +32% | +19% | −5% |
| Mt Rose | −48% | +31% | +21% | −8% |
| Mammoth | −46% | +38% | −2% | +5% |
| June Mountain | −44% | +36% | +1% | +5% |
| California & Tahoe average | −20% | +51% | +5% | +11% |
Every North American resort is on the El Niño map and full ranking, with how we measured it: 40 winters of ERA5-Land weather at each resort's mid-mountain elevation, tagged by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index and checked against 89 SNOTEL snow stations.