31 resorts · 40 winters · 2026–27 outlook
No. El Niño winters here usually bring less snow. El Niño winters have brought Montana, Idaho and Wyoming's resorts 10% less snow than a typical winter, and 11% less snow in the strongest El Niño winters.
El Niño usually means a drier, milder winter in the northern Rockies as the storm track shifts south. Most resorts in Montana, Idaho and Wyoming, Jackson Hole and Big Sky included, have averaged less snow in El Niño winters. La Niña is the snowy flip side.
Of 31 resorts, 3 show no clear effect and 28 get less.
−1% snow in El Niño winters, −2% in strong ones. Little effect.
−3% snow in El Niño winters, +7% in strong ones. Little effect.
−6% snow in El Niño winters, −9% in strong ones. Less snow.
Chasing El Niño snow? Head south: New Mexico & Arizona (+23% on average).
Snowfall in El Niño winters compared with each resort's 40-winter average (mid-mountain, Nov–Apr). The percentage is the average; the color says whether you can count on it.
| # | Resort | El Niñosnow vs. avg | La Niñasnow vs. avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowy RangeWY | −1% | +2% |
| 2 | PomerelleID | −3% | +3% |
| 3 | Big SkyMT | −6% | +6% |
| 4 | Antelope ButteWY | −8% | +2% |
| 5 | Bridger BowlMT | −8% | +5% |
| 6 | Pebble CreekID | −8% | +7% |
| 7 | Red LodgeMT | −8% | +4% |
| 8 | Maverick MountainMT | −8% | +8% |
| 9 | Kelly CanyonID | −8% | +9% |
| 10 | BrundageID | −8% | +7% |
| 11 | Bogus BasinID | −9% | +10% |
| 12 | TamarackID | −9% | +8% |
| 13 | Grand TargheeWY | −9% | +7% |
| 14 | DiscoveryMT | −10% | +8% |
| 15 | Sun ValleyID | −10% | +9% |
| 16 | Lost TrailMT | −10% | +8% |
| 17 | White PineWY | −10% | +4% |
| 18 | Soldier MountainID | −10% | +10% |
| 19 | ShowdownMT | −10% | +6% |
| 20 | Jackson HoleWY | −11% | +7% |
| 21 | SchweitzerID | −11% | +9% |
| 22 | Snow KingWY | −11% | +8% |
| 23 | Great DivideMT | −13% | +9% |
| 24 | Silver MountainID | −13% | +11% |
| 25 | WhitefishMT | −13% | +7% |
| 26 | Montana SnowbowlMT | −14% | +10% |
| 27 | BlacktailMT | −14% | +9% |
| 28 | Lookout PassID | −15% | +11% |
| 29 | Teton PassMT | −15% | +8% |
| 30 | Turner MountainMT | −15% | +11% |
| 31 | Marshall MountainMT | −16% | +12% |
2026–27 is shaping up as a strong El Niño. Here's how each Montana, Idaho & Wyoming resort did in the 4 strongest El Niño winters since 1986 (peak index +1.5°C or more), compared with its own average. A handful of winters, so read it as history, not a forecast.
| Resort | 1991–92 | 1997–98 | 2015–16 | 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snowy Range | −8% | −21% | +22% | +0% |
| Pomerelle | −31% | +14% | +23% | +21% |
| Big Sky | −7% | −13% | +3% | −19% |
| Antelope Butte | −4% | −3% | −2% | −20% |
| Bridger Bowl | +2% | −21% | −5% | −28% |
| Pebble Creek | −34% | +12% | +2% | +17% |
| Red Lodge | +2% | −12% | −14% | −21% |
| Maverick Mountain | −19% | −8% | +11% | −20% |
| Kelly Canyon | −30% | +9% | −4% | +9% |
| Brundage | −29% | −10% | +11% | −7% |
| Bogus Basin | −38% | −0% | +8% | +16% |
| Tamarack | −29% | −4% | +10% | −9% |
| Grand Targhee | −24% | −2% | −5% | +0% |
| Discovery | −15% | −18% | −2% | −18% |
| Sun Valley | −41% | −4% | +17% | −7% |
| Lost Trail | −20% | −14% | +5% | −20% |
| White Pine | −37% | −4% | −2% | +1% |
| Soldier Mountain | −47% | +0% | +15% | +6% |
| Showdown | −10% | −30% | −5% | −32% |
| Jackson Hole | −28% | −4% | −7% | −2% |
| Schweitzer | −27% | −18% | +2% | +2% |
| Snow King | −34% | −2% | −11% | −1% |
| Great Divide | −21% | −30% | −10% | −21% |
| Silver Mountain | −22% | −23% | +1% | −13% |
| Whitefish | −26% | −23% | −8% | −11% |
| Montana Snowbowl | −16% | −33% | −6% | −21% |
| Blacktail | −22% | −29% | −11% | −14% |
| Lookout Pass | −23% | −23% | −4% | −19% |
| Teton Pass | −26% | −37% | −10% | −20% |
| Turner Mountain | −25% | −25% | −7% | −14% |
| Marshall Mountain | −23% | −32% | −11% | −31% |
| Montana, Idaho & Wyoming average | −23% | −13% | +0% | −10% |
Every North American resort is on the El Niño map and full ranking, with how we measured it: 40 winters of ERA5-Land weather at each resort's mid-mountain elevation, tagged by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index and checked against 89 SNOTEL snow stations.