How much of each resort's winter precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, today and if winters run 2°C warmer. We rebuilt 40 winters of hourly weather at every resort's base, mid-mountain and peak and estimated rain vs. snow from temperature and humidity, hour by hour.
When might +1°C and +2°C happen?
Roughly +1°C by the mid 2030s and +2°C around 2050 for North American ski country — sooner if emissions keep rising, possibly never if they fall fast. It's already about 0.7°C warmer than the 1986–2026 average these numbers start from.
These are local winter warming above the average of the 1986–2026 winters we rebuilt (centered around 2006), not the global “1.5°C / 2°C above pre-industrial” targets, which start from the 1800s. The world has warmed about 1.37°C since pre-industrial times and is warming about 0.27°C per decade (Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025); North America's land warms roughly 1.5× faster than that, fastest in winter (U.S. National Climate Assessment). A rough guide, not a forecast: real timing depends on future emissions and varies by region and year.
The Rain Resiliency Score ranks resorts on three things at +2°C: how much winter precipitation falls as rain, how much of today's snow turns to rain, and how many significant rain days they get. It's a ranking, not a grade: 100 = least rain risk in the field, 50 = middle of the pack.
| Resort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A-BasinCO | 100 | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | LovelandCO | 100 | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 3 | MonarchCO | 99 | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| 3 | Wolf CreekCO | 99 | 0.4% | 2.6% |
| 5 | CopperCO | 98 | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | Winter ParkCO | 98 | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 7 | BreckenridgeCO | 97 | 0.8% | 3.0% |
| 7 | Crested ButteCO | 97 | 0.5% | 2.9% |
| 9 | BrightonUT | 96 | 0.7% | 3.1% |
| 9 | KeystoneCO | 96 | 1.2% | 4.3% |
| 11 | AltaUT | 95 | 0.8% | 3.6% |
| 11 | Marmot BasinAB | 95 | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 11 | Snowy RangeWY | 95 | 1.2% | 4.6% |
| 14 | Antelope ButteWY | 94 | 1.5% | 5.3% |
| 14 | Big SkyMT | 94 | 1.3% | 4.8% |
| 16 | Eagle PointUT | 93 | 1.7% | 5.1% |
| 16 | EldoraCO | 93 | 1.9% | 5.5% |
| 18 | Brian HeadUT | 92 | 1.6% | 5.4% |
| 18 | Lake LouiseAB | 92 | 1.8% | 5.8% |
| 20 | Ski Santa FeNM | 91 | 2.8% | 7.6% |
| 20 | Sunshine VillageAB | 91 | 2.2% | 6.7% |
| 22 | SnowbirdUT | 90 | 1.7% | 6.4% |
| 22 | SolitudeUT | 90 | 1.4% | 6.0% |
| 24 | TaosNM | 89 | 2.8% | 8.2% |
| 24 | TellurideCO | 89 | 2.1% | 6.9% |
| 24 | White PineWY | 89 | 1.8% | 7.1% |
| 27 | Beaver CreekCO | 88 | 2.5% | 7.8% |
| 27 | Red LodgeMT | 88 | 3.1% | 8.3% |
| 29 | Arctic ValleyAK | 87 | 0.6% | 5.9% |
| 29 | Moose MountainAK | 87 | 2.2% | 8.6% |
| 31 | ShowdownMT | 86 | 2.7% | 8.5% |
| 31 | VailCO | 86 | 2.8% | 8.1% |
| 33 | Grand TargheeWY | 85 | 1.7% | 7.3% |
| 33 | Ski SmithersBC | 85 | 1.1% | 7.1% |
| 35 | Bridger BowlMT | 84 | 3.9% | 9.7% |
| 35 | Ski GranbyCO | 84 | 2.7% | 8.9% |
| 35 | SnowmassCO | 84 | 3.0% | 8.6% |
| 38 | CucharaCO | 83 | 4.3% | 10% |
| 38 | PowderhornCO | 83 | 3.1% | 9.5% |
| 40 | PomerelleID | 82 | 4.9% | 11% |
| 40 | Sunlight MountainCO | 82 | 2.2% | 8.8% |
| 42 | Anthony LakesOR | 81 | 2.9% | 9.5% |
| 42 | SteamboatCO | 81 | 3.0% | 9.5% |
| 44 | Aspen HighlandsCO | 80 | 3.3% | 9.8% |
| 44 | Sun PeaksBC | 80 | 3.2% | 11% |
| 46 | Apex MountainBC | 79 | 2.4% | 9.6% |
| 46 | Arizona SnowbowlAZ | 79 | 4.9% | 12% |
| 46 | NakiskaAB | 79 | 4.3% | 11% |
| 49 | Great DivideMT | 78 | 5.1% | 13% |
| 49 | Silver SummitAB | 78 | 4.0% | 13% |
| 51 | MammothCA | 77 | 2.3% | 9.8% |
| 51 | Mt RoseNV | 77 | 2.9% | 10% |
| 53 | Lost TrailMT | 76 | 2.8% | 11% |
| 53 | Teton PassMT | 76 | 4.2% | 13% |
| 55 | Aspen MountainCO | 75 | 4.5% | 12% |
| 55 | Beaver MountainUT | 75 | 2.9% | 11% |
| 57 | Kicking HorseBC | 74 | 5.3% | 13% |
| 57 | Maverick MountainMT | 74 | 4.4% | 13% |
| 57 | Red RiverNM | 74 | 5.0% | 14% |
| 60 | PurgatoryCO | 73 | 4.5% | 13% |
| 60 | Terry PeakSD | 73 | 8.4% | 17% |
| 62 | ButtermilkCO | 72 | 4.8% | 14% |
| 62 | Silver StarBC | 72 | 5.4% | 15% |
| 64 | Jackson HoleWY | 71 | 5.2% | 14% |
| 64 | Ski Mystic Deer MountainSD | 71 | 8.6% | 17% |
| 66 | Angel FireNM | 70 | 7.5% | 17% |
| 66 | Big WhiteBC | 70 | 4.3% | 14% |
| 68 | Harper MountainBC | 69 | 6.7% | 18% |
| 68 | Pajarito MountainNM | 69 | 7.8% | 18% |
| 70 | BlacktailMT | 68 | 6.8% | 18% |
| 70 | June MountainCA | 68 | 4.3% | 15% |
| 70 | Park CityUT | 68 | 5.1% | 15% |
| 73 | PanoramaBC | 67 | 8.5% | 18% |
| 73 | Powder KingBC | 67 | 5.3% | 16% |
| 75 | Sandia PeakNM | 66 | 12% | 23% |
| 75 | Ski ApacheNM | 66 | 10% | 21% |
| 77 | Montana SnowbowlMT | 65 | 7.4% | 19% |
| 77 | Pebble CreekID | 65 | 7.5% | 19% |
| 79 | Castle MountainBC | 64 | 8.7% | 20% |
| 79 | Powder MountainUT | 64 | 6.7% | 19% |
| 81 | Mission RidgeWA | 63 | 7.9% | 20% |
| 81 | Mt AshlandOR | 63 | 7.4% | 19% |
| 81 | SnowbasinUT | 63 | 9.1% | 21% |
| 84 | Deer ValleyUT | 62 | 7.9% | 20% |
| 84 | DiscoveryMT | 62 | 8.1% | 21% |
| 86 | KirkwoodCA | 61 | 5.3% | 18% |
| 86 | WhitefishMT | 61 | 7.6% | 20% |
| 88 | BrundageID | 60 | 5.7% | 19% |
| 88 | Sun ValleyID | 60 | 9.3% | 22% |
| 90 | Red MountainBC | 59 | 7.1% | 20% |
| 90 | Saddleback MaineME | 59 | 16% | 27% |
| 92 | KimberleyBC | 58 | 8.6% | 22% |
| 92 | SipapuNM | 58 | 12% | 26% |
| 92 | WhitewaterBC | 58 | 6.0% | 20% |
| 95 | Snow KingWY | 57 | 8.8% | 23% |
| 95 | SugarloafME | 57 | 19% | 31% |
| 97 | FernieBC | 56 | 13% | 27% |
| 97 | StoweVT | 56 | 19% | 31% |
| 99 | Bogus BasinID | 55 | 11% | 26% |
| 99 | HeavenlyCA | 55 | 10% | 25% |
| 101 | Massif Du SudQC | 54 | 19% | 32% |
| 101 | Mont-Sainte-AnneQC | 54 | 18% | 31% |
| 103 | Loup LoupWA | 53 | 7.7% | 24% |
| 103 | Mt BachelorOR | 53 | 11% | 26% |
| 103 | SchweitzerID | 53 | 9.4% | 25% |
| 106 | IndianheadMI | 52 | 20% | 34% |
| 106 | Whiteface MountainNY | 52 | 23% | 35% |
| 108 | Le MassifQC | 51 | 20% | 34% |
| 108 | Troll Ski ResortBC | 51 | 9.1% | 26% |
| 110 | Jay PeakVT | 50 | 21% | 35% |
| 110 | SundanceUT | 50 | 12% | 29% |
| 112 | Giants RidgeMN | 49 | 19% | 35% |
| 112 | Soldier MountainID | 49 | 10% | 27% |
| 114 | Lutsen MountainsMN | 48 | 15% | 32% |
| 114 | RevelstokeBC | 48 | 18% | 31% |
| 116 | Cannon MountainNH | 47 | 23% | 37% |
| 116 | TimberlineOR | 47 | 13% | 28% |
| 116 | Wildcat MountainNH | 47 | 22% | 36% |
| 119 | Mt SpokaneWA | 46 | 17% | 33% |
| 119 | Whitecap MountainsWI | 46 | 23% | 38% |
| 121 | China PeakCA | 45 | 11% | 28% |
| 121 | Pico MountainVT | 45 | 26% | 39% |
| 123 | 49 Degrees NorthWA | 44 | 16% | 34% |
| 123 | StonehamQC | 44 | 23% | 38% |
| 125 | Mont SuttonQC | 43 | 24% | 38% |
| 125 | Turner MountainMT | 43 | 12% | 31% |
| 127 | Alpine MeadowsCA | 42 | 9.4% | 28% |
| 127 | Big PowderhornMI | 42 | 28% | 43% |
| 127 | Mont TremblantQC | 42 | 23% | 38% |
| 130 | TamarackID | 41 | 13% | 31% |
| 130 | Waterville ValleyNH | 41 | 26% | 41% |
| 132 | Mount BohemiaMI | 40 | 17% | 36% |
| 132 | Smugglers NotchVT | 40 | 28% | 42% |
| 134 | Diamond PeakNV | 39 | 13% | 33% |
| 134 | Marble MountainNL | 39 | 27% | 41% |
| 136 | Mad River GlenVT | 38 | 28% | 43% |
| 136 | Sunday RiverME | 38 | 27% | 42% |
| 138 | Pine MountainMI | 37 | 23% | 41% |
| 138 | Silver MountainID | 37 | 13% | 32% |
| 138 | SugarbushVT | 37 | 30% | 44% |
| 141 | Hemlock ResortBC | 36 | 8.2% | 27% |
| 141 | Stevens PassWA | 36 | 9.0% | 28% |
| 143 | KillingtonVT | 35 | 31% | 45% |
| 143 | Palisades TahoeCA | 35 | 14% | 33% |
| 145 | Burke MountainVT | 34 | 28% | 43% |
| 145 | Kelly CanyonID | 34 | 17% | 37% |
| 147 | StrattonVT | 33 | 30% | 45% |
| 147 | WhistlerBC | 33 | 19% | 36% |
| 149 | Bretton WoodsNH | 32 | 30% | 45% |
| 149 | Gore MountainNY | 32 | 31% | 46% |
| 149 | Marshall MountainMT | 32 | 20% | 40% |
| 152 | Granite PeakWI | 31 | 31% | 48% |
| 152 | Lookout PassID | 31 | 13% | 34% |
| 154 | Mont OrfordQC | 30 | 29% | 44% |
| 154 | Sugar BowlCA | 30 | 13% | 34% |
| 156 | Shames MountainBC | 29 | 6.3% | 28% |
| 156 | Sierra-At-TahoeCA | 29 | 15% | 35% |
| 158 | Bromley MountainVT | 28 | 30% | 46% |
| 158 | OkemoVT | 28 | 32% | 47% |
| 160 | Dodge RidgeCA | 27 | 16% | 36% |
| 160 | Mt LemmonAZ | 27 | 24% | 45% |
| 162 | AlyeskaAK | 26 | 13% | 34% |
| 162 | Crystal MountainWA | 26 | 14% | 35% |
| 162 | NorthstarCA | 26 | 16% | 38% |
| 165 | Afton AlpsMN | 25 | 37% | 54% |
| 165 | White PassWA | 25 | 15% | 36% |
| 167 | Holiday ValleyNY | 24 | 51% | 64% |
| 167 | Nubs NobMI | 24 | 28% | 48% |
| 169 | Mt Hood MeadowsOR | 23 | 19% | 38% |
| 169 | Snowshoe MountainWV | 23 | 54% | 66% |
| 171 | Bear ValleyCA | 22 | 18% | 39% |
| 171 | BorealCA | 22 | 12% | 37% |
| 173 | Cranmore MountainNH | 21 | 33% | 50% |
| 173 | Kissing BridgeNY | 21 | 49% | 63% |
| 173 | Seven SpringsPA | 21 | 59% | 71% |
| 176 | Loon MountainNH | 20 | 39% | 54% |
| 176 | Mount SnowVT | 20 | 34% | 50% |
| 178 | Caberfae PeaksMI | 19 | 41% | 58% |
| 178 | Shawness PeakME | 19 | 31% | 48% |
| 180 | AttitashNH | 18 | 38% | 54% |
| 180 | Boyne MountainMI | 18 | 33% | 52% |
| 182 | Boyne HighlandsMI | 17 | 30% | 50% |
| 182 | Shanty CreekMI | 17 | 35% | 53% |
| 184 | Crystal Mountain MiMI | 16 | 41% | 58% |
| 184 | Swain ResortNY | 16 | 49% | 64% |
| 186 | Donner Ski RanchCA | 15 | 14% | 38% |
| 186 | Mount SunapeeNH | 15 | 34% | 51% |
| 186 | Mt ShastaCA | 15 | 17% | 39% |
| 189 | Devils HeadWI | 14 | 52% | 68% |
| 189 | Ragged MounainNH | 14 | 34% | 52% |
| 191 | GunstockNH | 13 | 31% | 50% |
| 191 | Windham MountainNY | 13 | 41% | 58% |
| 193 | Ski BromontQC | 12 | 37% | 54% |
| 193 | Warner CanyonOR | 12 | 19% | 47% |
| 195 | Mount WashingtonBC | 11 | 12% | 38% |
| 195 | Spout SpringsOR | 11 | 20% | 43% |
| 195 | WillametteOR | 11 | 18% | 42% |
| 198 | Blue MountainON | 10 | 37% | 55% |
| 198 | Greek PeakNY | 10 | 50% | 66% |
| 200 | Bear MountainCA | 9 | 37% | 59% |
| 200 | Hunter MountainNY | 9 | 46% | 63% |
| 202 | Labrador MountainNY | 8 | 51% | 66% |
| 202 | Mountain HighCA | 8 | 38% | 60% |
| 204 | Dry HillNY | 7 | 49% | 66% |
| 204 | Mt BaldyCA | 7 | 35% | 58% |
| 206 | HomewoodCA | 6 | 20% | 45% |
| 206 | Snow SummitCA | 6 | 42% | 65% |
| 208 | Cypress MountainBC | 5 | 18% | 44% |
| 208 | EaglecrestAK | 5 | 13% | 43% |
| 208 | Mt BakerWA | 5 | 16% | 44% |
| 211 | BousquetMA | 4 | 48% | 66% |
| 211 | Snow ValleyCA | 4 | 46% | 69% |
| 213 | HoodooOR | 3 | 22% | 47% |
| 213 | Soda SpringsCA | 3 | 23% | 49% |
| 215 | Berkshire EastMA | 2 | 50% | 67% |
| 215 | BluewoodWA | 2 | 30% | 54% |
| 217 | Mount SeymourBC | 1 | 19% | 49% |
| 217 | SnoqualmieWA | 1 | 24% | 49% |
| 219 | Grouse MountainBC | 0 | 25% | 56% |
| 219 | Mt Hood SkibowlOR | 0 | 40% | 66% |
“Rain” = share of winter (Dec 1 – Apr 15) precipitation falling as rain, averaged across the mountain. +2°C is a stress test (the same winters replayed warmer), not a forecast. Full rain data and resort comparisons.