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Smugglers Notch and El Niño

Little effect

El Niño winters bring Smugglers Notch about 4% less snow than a typical winter.

Based on 14 El Niño winters since 1986: 5 of them beat Smugglers Notch's median snowfall. But El Niño winters here vary a lot, so it's a weak tendency at best. Ranks #41 of 68 Eastern & Midwestern resorts for El Niño snowfall.

El Niño winters (14) −4% snowfall vs. a typical winter About the same temperature
Strong El Niño (4) −3% snowfall vs. a typical winter
La Niña winters (14) +3% snowfall vs. a typical winter 0.1°C (0.2°F) warmer

Every winter since 1986

Snowfall each winter compared with Smugglers Notch's 40-winter average, colored by what the Pacific was doing.

El Niño La Niña Neutral

Mid-mountain, November–April. Any single winter can buck the pattern; that's why we look at averages.

Right now NOAA's latest Oceanic Niño Index reading (Jun–Aug 2026) is +1.8°C: strong El Niño conditions. NOAA's outlook says how long it's expected to last.
El Niño speaks Hear what's in store from El Niño himself.

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