Arizona Snowbowl — Rain Susceptibility
Based on 1986-87 through 2025-26 (40 ski seasons) of historical ERA5-Land weather data.
Score version: RSS_V5_PERCENTILE_COMPOSITE_DEC1_APR15_1986_2026 · calculated Sep 27, 2026 · dataset: reanalysis-era5-land-timeseries
| Arizona Snowbowl | |
|---|---|
| Rain Susceptibility Score (0=low, 100=high) |
21 |
| Rain Resilience Score | 79 |
| Overall Confidence | VERY_LOW |
| Percentile: future rain (+2°C) | 23.3 |
| Percentile: conversion exposure (+2°C) | 20.5 |
| Percentile: significant rain days (+2°C) | 20.5 |
| ERA5 grid location | 35.3, -111.7 — grid elevation 2482 m |
| Ski-season precip climatology | 184 mm/season across 343 precip hours/season |
Observed history: 1986-87 to 2025-26
Not a stress test — this is the actual real weather record, at the same elevations, with no synthetic warming applied. Compare its size to the hypothetical +1/+2/+3°C scenarios below to see how much warming has already happened vs. how much more the stress tests represent.
Each point is one real ski season's precip-weighted rain fraction — not smoothed or averaged, so year-to-year variability (a wet La Niña year, a dry cycle, etc.) is visible directly rather than hidden inside a multi-year average.
| Arizona Snowbowl | |
|---|---|
| 1986-87 to 2005-06 (first half avg.) | 5.38% |
| 2006-07 to 2025-26 (second half avg.) | 4.43% |
| Observed change (half-vs-half average) | -0.95% points |
Rain fraction by elevation band and warming scenario
Precipitation-weighted share of ski-season precipitation estimated to fall as rain, not snow.
| Band | Elevation | vs. grid elev. | Confidence | Current | +1°C | +2°C | +3°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 2804 m | 322 m | GOOD | 8.4% | 12.9% | 19.8% | 29.4% |
| Mid | 3155 m | 673 m | MODERATE | 3.3% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 12.5% |
| Summit | 3505 m | 1023 m ⚠ | VERY_LOW | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% |
Rain fraction vs. warming, by elevation band
Underlying conditions during precipitation (geeky detail)
Precip-weighted distribution of wet-bulb temperature, dry-bulb temperature, and relative humidity during ski-season precipitation hours -- the actual data behind the rain fraction above, plus the phase curve applied to it. Not used in scoring; here purely for transparency.